Plain-English breakdowns of the math behind sports betting markets — new posts weekly.
Finding a positive EV bet is only half the problem. Sizing it wrong can turn a real edge into ruin — the Kelly criterion is the standard answer for how much to actually risk.
Read the pieceWin rate is noisy over any sample size you can collect in a season. Closing line value is the metric professional bettors actually track — because it measures something win rate can't.
Read the pieceExpected value is the single most useful number in quantitative sports betting — and one of the most misunderstood. Here's the actual math, worked through step by step.
Read the pieceEvery posted line has a built-in margin for the house. Most bettors never calculate it directly — here's how, and why the number is usually bigger than it looks.
Read the pieceA player prop line isn't a prediction — it's a number designed to split action evenly. Understanding that distinction changes how you should read every prop on the board.
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